Mathematical models of within-host and transmission dynamics to determine effects of malaria interventions in a variety of transmission settings

Abstract

A model for Anopheles population dynamics and malaria transmission is combined with a within-host dynamics microsolver to study baseline transmission, the effects of seasonality, and the impact of interventions. The Garki Project is recreated in simulation of the pre-intervention baseline and the different combinations of interventions deployed. Modifications are introduced, and longer project duration, extension of dry-season spraying, and transmission-blocking vaccines together achieve local elimination in some conditions. A variety of interventions are simulated in transmission settings that vary in transmission intensity and underlying seasonality. Adding vaccines to existing vector control efforts extends the ability to achieve elimination to higher baseline transmission and less favorable vector behavior. If one species of the Anopheles gambiae species complex feeds disproportionately outdoors for a given complex average behavior, vector control impacts are less than for a single species. Non-zero dry-season transmission limits seasonal oscillation in parasite dynamics and impact of wet-season interventions. Copyright © 2013 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.