Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in young non-metastatic rectal cancer patients after curative resection: a population-based analysis

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in young non-metastatic rectal cancer (RC) patients after curative resection. Methods: Young RC patients (under 50 years of age) from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Those patients randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The independent prognostic factors for OS were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. A nomogram model was built based on the independent prognostic variables and was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: A total number of 3026 young RC patients were extracted from SEER database. OS nomogram was constructed based on race, histological type, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, and number of lymph nodes (LN) examined. C-index, ROC curves, calibration plot, and DCA curves presented satisfactory performance of the above nomogram in predicting the prognosis of young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram can identify three subgroups of patients at different risks, which showed different prognostic outcomes both in the training cohort and validation cohort. Conclusion: We successfully established a reliable and insightful nomogram to predict OS for young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram may provide accurate prognosis prediction to guide individualized follow-up and treatment plans.