Application of the Fuzzy Time Series-markov Chain Method to the Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the US Dollar (USD)

Abstract

The exchange rate holds great significance in analyzing the Indonesian economy, given its substantial influence on the overall economic landscape. By virtue of its dynamic characteristics, it is possible to engage in forecasting activities to anticipate forthcoming exchange rates. The aim of this research is to develop a prediction model using the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Markov chain method to forecast the Indonesian Rupiah's exchange rate against the US Dollar. Additionally, the study intends to determine the projected exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar for the upcoming season. Using the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Markov Chain method, the values of  and , which are precise positive  numbers, are determined by the researcher. Forecasting this level of sales result with =44.38 and = 11 generate error values (MAPE) of 0.2627525%. Forecasting for the next 21 days compared to data on sales of the rupiah against the USD dollar from January 2 2023 to January 31 2023 produces a MAPE value of 2.414564% with an accuracy rate of 97.58544%.