A Novel Approach to Ship Operational Risk Analysis Based on D-S Evidence Theory

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In view of the complex environment in which risk analysis of ship accidents is carried out, and the uncertainty and ambiguity of experts’ judgements in risk analysis, this paper proposes a risk analysis method based on intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set and D-S evidence theory. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is applied to determine the weight of each criterion, and then the risk value of m for each attribute is aggregated based on D-S evidence theory. In terms of expert information aggregation, expert weights are firstly obtained based on evidence distance and fuzzy entropy, and then experts’ judgements for attributes are merged via D-S theory to yield the risk ranking of each attribute. Finally, a cruise ship collision scenario is provided as a case to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method. The result validates that D-S evidence theory is an efficient tool for ship risk analysis.




Liu, T., Zhou, Y., Bao, J., Wang, X., & Zhang, P. (2021). A Novel Approach to Ship Operational Risk Analysis Based on D-S Evidence Theory. In Communications in Computer and Information Science (Vol. 1449, pp. 728–741). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-5188-5_52

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