The Public and the Conflict over Future Medicare Spending

Abstract

In this analysis of national polling data, the authors conclude that political candidates who favor cuts in Medicare to reduce the federal budget deficit could face negative electoral consequences. Two recent government reports show substantial short-term improvements in the financial outlook for Medicare and in the federal budget deficit.(1),(2) However, these forecasts also suggest the need for further action brought about by a worsening of the financial situation after 2015 as the number of Medicare recipients increases from 52 million to 73 million in the decade following.(1)-(3) This issue is likely to receive considerable attention in the upcoming debate about the federal budget deficit and the national debt. As we reported in the Journal in 2011, there has been little public support for major policy changes aimed ...