An economic analysis of deforestation in Madagascar in the 1990s

Abstract

Madagascar is well-known among conservationists for both its unique forest ecosystems and its alarmingly high rates of deforestation. This paper studies the factors driving deforestation in Madagascar using a nation-wide data set of commune-level variables. The analysis suggests that higher population and fertility rates were associated with higher deforestation in the moist forest region in the 1990s. Deforestation was lower in vanilla producing areas and higher in coffee producing areas. This finding runs counter to the theory that higher prices for crops drive deforestation, since prices for vanilla growers in Madagascar were more favourable than for coffee growers. Provincial road access also led to more forest loss, but other road and market access variables were insignificant. In the dry and spiny forest areas, market-oriented maize production plays a significant role. The study also makes a methodological contribution by addressing the potential bias introduced by missing data due to cloud cover in satellite images.