The impact of participation in the comprehensive and progressive trans-pacific partnership agreement on exports: The case of Vietnam

Abstract

World Trade organization (WTO) accession can be seen as a milestone marking Vietnam’s first step towards integration. The country is now trying to negotiate a number of free trade agreements called “new generation FTAs” in particular the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership - CPTPP (or TPP-11), which is expected to constitute the second step for Vietnam towards stronger integration. In addition to analyzing the characteristics of the CPTPP as a new generation FTA, this paper uses quantitative methods to forecast the impact of Vietnam’s CPTPP participation on the increase in exports. The results show that with the participation of the CPTPP, the average growth in Vietnam’s export turnover will increase by 1.9% compared with the non-CPTPP scenario. The paper also suggests measures to promote the export of Vietnamese goods in the context of participation in CPTPP.