Prognostic Value of Serial Lactate Measurement in Pediatric Cardiac Surgery Patients with Congenital Heart Disease in Southeast Mexico

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Lactate, traditionally considered a byproduct of anaerobic metabolism, is increasingly recognized as a biomarker of tissue perfusion and systemic stress. While hyperlactatemia is frequent after pediatric cardiac surgery, evidence regarding its prognostic role remains controversial. This study aimed to evaluate whether serial lactate measurements predict mortality in children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease in Southeast Mexico. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including children aged 0–210 weeks with confirmed congenital heart disease who underwent first-time cardiac surgery between January 2022 and December 2024. Serum lactate was measured intraoperatively, at intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and at 12 and 24 h postoperatively using a Gem® Premier™ 3500 analyzer. Sociodemographic, clinical, and surgical data were recorded. Associations between lactate levels and mortality were analyzed with Cox regression, adjusting for RACHS-2 category and intraoperative complications. Predictive performance was assessed with ROC curves and Harrell’s C-index. Results: 103 patients were included (median age 49.2 weeks; 60% female). Lactate levels overlapped intraoperatively but significantly discriminated against survivors from non-survivors thereafter. ICU admission lactate ≥ 4.2 mmol/L predicted mortality with 100% sensitivity and 60% specificity (AUC = 0.84). Hazard ratios confirmed that lactate at ICU admission (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.16–4.06; p = 0.015), 12 h (HR 6.37, 95% CI 1.02–39.6; p = 0.047), and 24 h (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.07–3.09; p = 0.028) were significant predictors of mortality. The model showed excellent discrimination (Harrell’s C = 0.986), though optimism due to the limited number of deaths should be considered. Conclusions: Serial lactate monitoring, particularly upon ICU admission, provides strong prognostic information for in-hospital mortality in pediatric cardiac surgery patients. Incorporating early postoperative lactate into routine monitoring may allow timely therapeutic adjustments. Preoperative lactate assessment warrants further evaluation as a potential risk stratification tool.