Statistical modeling of life cycle of oil reservoir development

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Abstract

Traditional approaches to the problem of oil feld life cycle partitioning onto the successive stages is mainly based on heuristic evaluations with no well-defned criteria. To solve this problem, we proposed a stage wise structuring based on the identifcation of the current oil production distribution in the individual stages and isolation of adjacent stages' boundary points defning the duration of each stage. Using statistical analysis of experimental data on development of a large number (more than twenty) of specifc felds reduced into one "generalized deposit" followed The Savitzky-Golay smoothing flter shows that the life cycle of the feld can be divided into four successive stages which are defnitely described as logarithmically normal, exponential, Pareto and Weibull distributions. Using non-linear logistic model for the cumulative oil production in the last fourth stage of the life cycle a computational procedure has been developed for assessing the initial recoverable reserves, as well as the method for estimating the maximum level of oil production has been proposed. The method is based on fnding inflection point of the curve describing the dynamics of cumulative oil production, by examining second order differences. Based on the values of cumulative oil production in the later points of the fnal development stages oil production was predicted and the design parameters for the current development system were evaluated using adaptive Kalman flter in discrete time.

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Suleimanov, B. A., Ismailov, F. S., Dyshin, O. A., & Keldibayeva, S. S. (2014). Statistical modeling of life cycle of oil reservoir development. Journal of the Japan Petroleum Institute, 57(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.1627/jpi.57.47

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