Effects of Perceived Scarcity on Mental Health, Time and Risk Preferences, and Decision-Making During and After COVID-19 Lockdown: Quasi-Natural Experimental Study

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 lockdowns led to significant resource constraints, potentially impacting mental health and decision-making behaviors. Understanding the psychological and behavioral consequences could inform designing interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of episodic scarcity during crises like pandemics. Objective: To investigate the effects of perceived scarcity on mental health (stress and fear), cognitive functioning, time and risk preferences (present bias and risk aversion), and trade-offs between groceries, health, and temptation goods during and after the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai. Methods: A quasi-natural experiment was conducted in Shanghai during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Web-based surveys were administered in May 2022 (during lockdown) and September 2022 (post-lockdown). Propensity score matching was used to balance demographic factors between the groups (During: n=332; After: n=339). Data were analyzed using regression analyses, controlling for potential confounders and applying propensity score matching weights. Results: Perceived scarcity was significantly higher during the lockdown (mean 7.97 (SD 2.1)) than after (mean 4.35 (SD 2.27); P