The public use of early-stage scientific advances in carbon dioxide removal: a science-technology-policy-media perspective

Abstract

While Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) solutions are considered essential to meet Paris Agreement objectives and curb climate change, their maturity and current ability to operate at scale are highly debated. The rapid development, deployment, and diffusion of such methods will likely require the coordination of science, technology, policy, and societal support. This article proposes a bibliometric approach to quantify the public use of early-stage research in CDR. Specifically, we employ generalized linear models to estimate the likelihood that scientific advances in eight different carbon removal solutions may induce (i) further production of scientific knowledge, (ii) technological innovation, and (iii) policy and media discussion. Our main result is that research in CDR is of significant social value. CDR research generates significant, positive, yet heterogeneous spillovers within science and from science to technology, policy, and media. In particular, advances in Direct Air Capture spur further research and tend to result in patentable technologies, while Blue Carbon and Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage appear to gain relative momentum in the policy and public debate. Moreover, scientific production and collaborations cluster geographically by type of CDR, potentially affecting long-term carbon removal strategies. Overall, our results suggest the existence of coordination gaps between science, technology, policy, and public support.