Guatemala 2021: Reconsolidating Impunity and Reversing Democracy

Abstract

The year 2021 marked the 25th anniversary of the signing of Guatemala’s land-mark peace accords. Yet celebrations of this historic achievement stood in sharp contrast to the year’s alarming trends in the deterioration of democracy and the rule of law. Reviewing the events of 2021, this article uncovers two key patterns in Guatemalan politics, both evidence of democratic decline: 1) open assaults on judicial independence and breaches of the constitutional order, and 2) an escalation in the criminalization of government critics, particularly those on the frontlines of the anti-corruption struggle. It also takes stock of the most pernicious conse-quences of these patterns, including the abysmal Covid-19 response and the new opportunities for corruption amid resurgent impunity. Combined, these dynamics have also increased tensions within US-Guatemala relations as the Biden White House increasingly perceived the Guatemalan government as an unreliable part-ner in tackling the root causes of migration. In sum, 2021 was an inflection point in Guatemala’s 25-year trajectory of peace—one that has steadily sent the country down an authoritarian path like many of its neighbors in the Western Hemisphere.