The Search for the "Breaking Point" in Vietnam: The Statistics of a Deadly Quarrel

Abstract

American strategies for success in the Vietnam War, derived at least partly from historical experience, were based on the assumption that Communist forces would reach a 'break point' after suffering enough punishment. In conformity with this strategy, extensive damage was inflicted to the point where it appears the military costs accepted by the Communists, in comparison with population, were virtually unprecedented in modern history. The central question about the war then is: why were the Vietnamese Communists willing to accept virtually unprecedented losses for a military goal that was far from central to the continued existence of their state? Some aspects of an answer to this question are suggested; the strategy of attrition is assessed in historical comparison; and the questions of where the 'breaking point' might have been is discussed.