Can We Predict Death Using Scoring Systems in Patients with Local Peritonitis? A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Introduction: Prognostic scores in patients with local peritonitis (LP) have not yet been studied exhaustively. Aim: We, therefore, aimed in this study to evaluate the ability of several scoring systems to predict death in LP. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis including 68 patients with LP was conducted at Prof. Dr. Stoyan Kirkovich University Hospital in Stara Zagora from January 2017 to August 2021. Clinical and laboratory data needed for calculating the scoring systems were collected at admission or postoperatively. We compared the prognostic performance of WSES SSS, MPI, SIRS, and qSOFA using area under the receiver operation characteristics (AUROC) curves and bivariate correlation analysis. Results: The observed mortality rate was 8.8%. Among all scores, MPI showed the best prognostic performance (AUROC=0.805, 95% CI 0.660–0.950). A threshold MPI >25 points permitted prediction of adverse outcome with a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 80.6%. The only significant correlation was found between outcome and MPI (p=0.012, r=0.302). Conclusions: The MPI has the ability to prognosticate mortality in patients with LP unlike WSES SSS, qSOFA and SIRS.