China's missing girls in the three decades from 1980 to 2010

Abstract

The strictly implemented fertility policy that has been in force in China since 1980 has led to a continuously increasing sex ratio at birth and in turn to a large number of missing girls. Based on China's four recent censuses, we find that the number of missing girls accounted for 2.93 percent of all girls expected to have been born during 1980 to 1989, 9.31 percent during 1990 to 1999, and 10.85 percent during 2000 to 2010. The 1980-2010 birth cohorts have 20 million missing girls, namely 7.34 percent. For cohorts born from 1980 to 2010, males outnumber females by 36 million at the census times, 20 million as a result of the phenomenon of missing girls, while the remaining 16 million is biologically determined, as there are about 5 percent more male births under normal sex ratio at birth. We discuss possible adjustment of the fertility policy in China and measures that might lead to a more normal sex ratio at birth.