Flood risk assessment for Kunhar River Basin using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

Abstract

Floods are one of the most destructive natural hazards globally due to their frequency and high intensity under a changing climate. The Kunhar River Basin is an important mountainous basin famous for its diverse morphology and tourist attractions. The growing population and tourism, together with the topographical features, have made the basin a hotspot for recurrent floods. This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), approaches of the Multi-Criteria Decision Approach (MCDA), combined with the Geographical Information System (QGIS), to analyze multi-source data across eleven parameters to generate flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk maps. Low elevation and gentle slopes are the primary drivers of flood hazard, resulting in 10.4% of the basin as highly susceptible to flood hazard. Around 8.6% of the basin is highly vulnerable to floods owing to high-population densities, specifically towns like Balakot and Gari Habibullah. The weighted flood risk map shows that 8.7% of the basin lies under the high risk, aligning closely with flood damage records from 2006, 2010, 2022, and recently 2024. The detailed flood risk maps serve as a much-needed tool for disaster management authorities to concentrate planning and mitigation efforts, and also as a baseline for future climate change and flood risk analyses.