Reducing Catastrophic Climate Risk by Revolutionizing the Amazon: Novel Pathways for Brazilian Diplomacy

Abstract

The Anthropocene poses profound challenges to the conservation of the Amazon rainforest, a global carbon reservoir. The forest’s unsustainable model of development, based on severe land use changes, and the effects of anthropogenic climate change may result in irreversible damage. In addition, crossing tipping points for the survival of the Amazon rainforest may trigger catastrophic climate change (CCC), which reflects the urgent need for a new development paradigm for the region. However, the prospects of the dieback of the Amazon as well as of a CCC scenario are generally overlooked in the academic and political debates. This chapter aims to fill this gap by exploring the link between irreversible environmental changes in the forest and potential CCC and by analyzing the challenge of sustainable development in the Brazilian Amazon, demonstrating how close a climate catastrophe might be; it then presents a novel development paradigm for the region. The revolutionary technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are proposed as central to this necessary paradigm shift. Because the Amazon rainforest is a global natural asset for avoiding CCC, Brazil is also advised to follow a diplomatic plan that upholds fundamental ecological principles for creating a safe space for humanity, thus attracting international investments to manage and preserve the forest.