Evaluation of policies to combat poverty in brazil: Application of the generalized synthetic control method for fecop in ceará

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of the creation of the State Fund to Combat Poverty (FECOP) in 2003 on poverty indicators in Ceará. The empirical application is distinguished by the use of the Generalized Synthetic Control method recently developed by Xu (2017). With state-level data for the period 1981 to 2014, the results indicate a statistically significant impact of FECOP on poverty and extreme poverty reduction in Ceará starting in 2008. Additionally, a comparative analysis of states composing the synthetic control for Ceará was carried out, regarding the number and total value of benefits of the Program Bolsa Família. The purpose is to present evidence that the effects found are not being affected by federal program transfers.