Environmental risk assessment of earthen heritage sites in arid regions: a case study of the Great Wall in Xinjiang

Abstract

This study investigates conservation challenges confronting the Great Wall sites in Xinjiang (XGWS), located in ecologically fragile arid regions vulnerable to weathering and discontinuous spatial distribution. A regional risk assessment framework integrating K-means clustering and entropy weight methods was constructed, incorporating primary risk factors identified through field surveys and data analysis. Anthropogenic disturbances, particularly agricultural expansion, emerged as dominant threats. Spatial risk patterns correlated strongly with elevation: high-risk at lower elevations (synergistic anthropogenic-natural pressures), moderate risks at mid-elevations (disaster-dominated), and minimal risks at higher altitudes. Approximately 45.3% of sites exhibited elevated environmental hazards that were concentrated in agriculturally intensive areas, urbanizing regions, and zones with severe soil salinization. Based on the risk assessment results, a zoned and graded protection strategy is proposed, providing a scientific basis for the preservation and management of the sites.