Regressive and Spatio-Temporal Accessibility of Variability in Solar Energy on a Short Scale Measurement in the Southern and Mid Region of Mozambique

Abstract

Solar energy reaching a horizontal surface can possess fluctuations that impact electricity generation at a solar plant. Despite this, energy access remains inadequate, particularly in rural areas, with an estimated 82% deficiency. This drives us to assess the regressive and spatial-temporal accessibility of solar energy in the southern and mid regions of Mozambique. This evaluation aims to determine the actual availability of energy for electrification purposes. Data on global horizontal irradiation from approximately 8 stations across all provinces in the specified regions, collected between 2012 and 2014 at intervals of 1 and 10 min, were analyzed using regression and correlation methods along with a specialized algorithm for classifying days based on clear sky index terms. The statistical analysis identified days with significant potential for energy accessibility, exceeding 50% of the average. The findings suggest a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.30 for energy and non-linear regression with clear sky index coefficients around 0.80. The method employed demonstrated accuracy when compared to theoretical simulations of the clear sky index in the region, indicating its potential applicability in other regions of interest.