Incidence of unemployment and poverty on migration flows in the South-North international corridor (1990–2022). An econometric panel data approach

Abstract

The aim of this research is to determine the incidence of socioeconomic variables in migration flows from the main countries of origin that form part of the international South-North migration corridor, such as Mexico, China, India, and the Philippines, during the 1990– 2022 period. The independent variables considered are GDP per capita, unemployment, poverty, higher education, and public health, while the dependent variable is migration flows. An econometric panel data model is implemented. The tests conducted indicate that all variables have an integration order of I (1) and exhibit long-term equilibrium. The econometric models used, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), reveal that unemployment and poverty had the strongest influence on migration flows. In both models, within this international migration corridor, GDP per capita, higher education, and health follow in order of importance.