Dynamic model engineering of sustainable agriculture as a pragmatic concept of critical land management

Abstract

According to many experts, the water crisis will be one of the most important challenges in the coming years on the planet. Watershed management is one of the most effective ways to conserve rainwater and develop water resources. The purpose of the study was to obtain a model of critical land management in the Welang watershed area. This study uses a dynamic systems approach based on a causal philosophy (cause and effect) through a deep understanding of how a system works. The parameters used are based on sustainable agriculture in terms of physical sustainability aspects/critical land from erosion factor indicators. Model validation is done by comparing the behaviour of the model with a natural system (quantitive behaviour pattern comparison), namely the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Middle-Value Test. Modelling is supported by Powersim Studio Express Software ver. 10. The results show that the physical sustainability model/critical land using a simulation scenario of 25% erosion control funds shows a trend of increasing production land area and tackled land area followed by a decrease in annual erosion weight. The economic sustainability model obtained results at the end of the projected year showing farm revenues IDR 63,591,396 (USD1 ≈ IDR14.27 thous. in average in 2021). This means that the higher the acceptance value, the farming can provide economic welfare for farmers.