The influence of potential infection on the relationship between temperature and confirmed cases of covid-19 in China

Abstract

Considering the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city, this paper explores the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China through the non-parametric method. In this paper, the floating population of each city in Wuhan is taken as a proxy variable for the number of potential new coronavirus infections. Firstly, to use the non-parametric method correctly, the symmetric Gauss kernel and asymmetric Gamma kernel are applied to estimate the density of cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. The result confirms that the Gamma kernel provides a more reasona-ble density estimation of bounded data than the Gauss kernel. Then, through the non-parametric method based on the Gamma kernel estimation, this paper finds a positive relationship between Wuhan’s mobile population and cumulative confirmed cases, while the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases is inconclusive in China when the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city is considered. Compared with the weather, the potentially infected population plays a more critical role in spreading the virus. Therefore, the role of prevention and control measures is more important than weather factors. Even in summer, we should also pay attention to the prevention and control of the epidemic.