AI, Great Power Competition & National Security

Abstract

Breakthroughs in AI are accelerating global commercial competition and transforming the international security environment. The reach and influence of foreign-based network platforms present risks to American society and require us to confront questions about their origin and purpose. Meanwhile, AI technologies are enhancing several existing national security threats, and will change the way states try to gain leverage against adversaries and exercise coercion and influence in other societies. The open nature of free and democratic societies, combined with their increasing reliance on poorly secured digital networks, makes them especially vulnerable. In the military realm, AI holds the prospect of augmenting cyber, conventional, and nuclear capabilities in ways that make security relationships among rivals more challenging to predict and maintain, and conflicts more difficult to limit. Even as they compete, rivals should explore limits on AI capabilities. The AI ecosystems of the principal global competitors, the United States and China, remain intertwined, and a calibration of the bilateral technology relationship requires both selective de-coupling and continued collaboration in areas of mutual interest. These changes require a comprehensive national strategy for the next decade that preserves global leadership advantages for America’s economy and security.