Planning Strategies for Sustainable Electricity Systems Amidst Uncertainty: Case Study of the Yukon, Canada

Abstract

Electric utilities face a growing challenge in maintaining low-cost and reliable electricity amidst emerging pressures for socio-environmental sustainability and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this work, we introduce an approach for generation expansion planning (GEP) that prioritizes sustainability objectives by implementing planning strategies that constrain future generation options based on socio-environmental indicators. Capacity expansion decisions under each strategy are then simulated and evaluated under a wide range of possible futures. Using the Temoa energy system optimization model, we adopt a unique myopic foresight approach in which cost-optimal capacity expansion decisions are locked-in based on forecasts of the future, before actual values are revealed. We demonstrate this approach for a case study in the Yukon, Canada, by identifying robust strategies with respect to cost, reliability, GHG emissions, ecological sustainability, and social sustainability. In our case study, more flexible strategies, such as restricting the development of diesel generation but not other types of thermal generation, improve socio-environmental outcomes at relatively low risk to system cost. Conversely, more restrictive strategies, such as avoiding all projects with potentially negative social or ecological impacts, risk substantially increasing system costs and may even have the opposite intended effect by inducing reliance on emergency diesel generators.