Projection of global daily CO 2 emissions in 2025

Abstract

Keywords Global carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions have rebounded rapidly and continued to grow since 2021, raising concerns that the remaining global carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C may be exhausted by 2024. This study projects global CO 2 emissions for 2025 by analyzing daily patterns and anomalies throughout the year. Using the daily activity data and/or proxies from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2025, we estimate the emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes across seven global sectors. Our results indicate a slight increase (0.6%, 2σ = −1.1% to 2.2%; total 104.1 ± 1.74 Mt CO 2 per day) in global CO 2 emissions by the end of 2025. The flattening of emissions is mainly driven by reductions in China's daily emissions (−1.2% ± 1.6%) due to a shift toward non-fossil-fuel generation in the power sector. In contrast, the emissions from other major emitters-the United States (2.7% ± 2.2%), India (0.4% ± 1.6%), and the European Union (0.9% ± 3.3%)-are expected to rise. The discrepancy between daily emissions and baseline projections suggests a structural transformation of the global energy system, which remains vulnerable to extreme weather and surging demand. Moreover, energy strategies in some countries that contradict their emission-reduction commitments may further delay the global emissions peak. daily CO 2 emissions 2025 projection near real-time