Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Tourist Vehicles Using Mathematical Methods: A Case Study in Altai Tavan Bogd National Park

Abstract

The transportation sector significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and remains a key research focus on emission quantification and mitigation. Although numerous models exist for estimating vehicle-based emissions, most lack accuracy at regional scales, particularly in remote or underdeveloped areas, including backcountry national parks and mountainous regions lacking basic infrastructure. This study addresses that gap by developing and applying a terrain-adjusted, segment-based methodology to estimate GHG emissions from tourist vehicles in Altai Tavan Bogd National Park, one of Mongolia’s most remote protected areas. The proposed method uses Tier 1 IPCC emission factors but incorporates field-segmented route analysis, vehicle categorization, and terrain-based fuel adjustments to achieve a spatially disaggregated Tier 1 approach. Results show that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased from 118.7 tons in 2018 to 2239 tons in 2024. Tourist vehicle entries increased from 712 in 2018 to 13,192 in 2024, with 99.1% of entries occurring between May and October. Over the same period, cumulative methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions were estimated at 300.9 kg and 45.75 kg, respectively. This modular approach is especially suitable for high-altitude, infrastructure-limited regions where real-time emissions monitoring is not feasible. By integrating localized travel patterns with global frameworks such as the IPCC 2006 Guidelines, this model enables more precise and context-sensitive GHG estimates from vehicles in national parks and similar environments.