Modeling temperature-dependent development rate and phenology in insects: review of major developments, challenges, and future directions

Abstract

The study of insect responses to temperature has a long tradition in science, starting from Réaumur's work on caterpillars in the 18th century. In 1932, Ernst Janisch wrote: ‘The problem is (and will be more and more in the future) one of the most important ones in entomology […]’. Almost 90 years after this paper, its prediction still holds true, with a sustained interest of the scientific community for the study of insect responses to temperature, especially in the context of climate change. We present a review of the major developments in the field of insect development responses to temperature and analyze the growing importance of modeling approaches in the literature using a bibliographic analysis. We discuss recent advances and future directions for phenology-modeling based on temperature-dependent development rate. Finally, we highlight the need for a change of paradigm toward a system-based approach in order to overcome current challenges and to predict insect phenology more accurately, with direct implications in agriculture, conservation biology, and epidemiology.