Future Climate Changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau Under CMIP6 Global Climate Models

Abstract

Rapid climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is reshaping ecosystems, altering water availability and affecting human livelihoods. Understanding the timing and distribution of these changes is now critical. This study examines precipitation and temperature changes from 1980 to 2100 using CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) and high-resolution observational data. It examined seasonal and annual variability, model biases and projected changes for various climate scenarios. Our findings show that climate models consistently overestimated precipitation, particularly in southeastern QTP, while cold biases are prevalent in central and western regions in the past. Seasonal precipitation patterns exhibit significant variation across QTP. Bias corrections enhanced model reliability, reinforcing projections of wetter conditions and continued warming across QTP. Future projections indicate wetter conditions in winter and summer, though some areas may experience a slight decline in annual accumulations. Temperature trends project pronounced warming across all seasons, with the strongest increases expected in winter. Both maximum and minimum temperatures project significant upward trends, particularly at higher elevations. These findings indicate a shift toward a warmer and wetter climate at QTP, with potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The study underscores the urgency of adaptive strategies to mitigate climate risks and enhance resilience in this high-altitude environment.