Spatial variation of sea level rise at Atlantic and Mediterranean coastline of Europe

Abstract

The inundation impact of sea level rise (SLR) is critical, since coastal regions of Europe house important critical infrastructures and large population centers. According to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies, the analysis of the SLR problem is complicated. Beyond the reported complexities involved in the analysis of this phenomenon, the expected spatial variability of SLR in oceans further complicates this analysis. Spatial variability of SLR in oceans is both observed and also expected, according to IPCC studies. Estimation of spatial variation of SLR in oceans is necessary to identify the level of potential threats that may impact different coastline regions. Identification of geographic patterns of SLR based on local coastal data has been reported in the literature. Unfortunately, these estimates cannot be used in predictive analysis over a century. Thus, the solution of this problem using mathematical models is the other alternative that can be employed. Modeling solutions to this problem is currently in its infancy, and further studies in this field are needed. In this study, a methodology developed by the authors is used to estimate the SLR for the Atlantic and the Mediterranean coastline of Europe that also includes the other oceans. This effort utilizes the dynamic system model (DSM) with spatial analysis capability (S-DSM) to predict the regional sea level change. Results obtained provide consistent assessment of spatial variability of SLR pattern in oceans as well as the temperature changes over the 21st century. This approach may also be used in other coastal regions to aid management decision in a timely manner.