C-reactive protein serum levels as an early predictor of outcome in patients with pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus infection

Abstract

Background: Data for predicting which patients with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection are likely to run a complicated course are sparse. We retrospectively studied whether the admission serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels can serve as a predictor of illness severity.Methods: Included were all consecutive adult patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) between May-December, 2009 with a flu-like illness, a confirmed diagnosis of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection and a serum CRP level measured within 24 hours of presentation. Patients with a proven additional concurrent acute illness (e.g., bacteremia) were excluded. We used the ROC curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox proportional hazard model to evaluate the predictive ability of CRP as a prognostic factor.Results: Seventeen (9%) of the 191 enrolled patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), of whom eight (4%) required mechanical ventilation and three (2%) died. The median admission serum CRP levels were significantly higher among patients who required subsequent ICU care and mechanical ventilation than among patients who did not (123 mg/L and 112 mg/L vs. 40 mg/L, p <28 mg/L (lower tertile) required either ICU admission or mechanical ventilation. At the same time point, 19% of the patients with admission serum CRP level ≥70 mg/L (upper tertile) needed to be admitted to the ICU and 8% of the same upper tertile group required mechanical ventilation. The differences in the rates between the lower vs. upper tertile groups were significant (Log-Rank p < .001 for ICU and p < .024 for mechanical ventilation).Conclusions: In our study group, serum CRP levels obtained in the early ED admission stage from patients presenting with pandemic H1N1 influenza A infection were found to serve as a useful gauge for predicting disease course and assisting in patient management. © 2010 Zimmerman et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.