Hybrid LSTM-DES Models for Enhancing the Prediction Performance of Rail Tourism: A Case Study of Train Passengers in Thailand †

Abstract

This paper proposes hybrid LSTM-DES models that combine traditional forecasting methods with recurrent neural network techniques. We experimented with these proposed models using four passenger datasets from different regions of Thailand. Additionally, we compared their performance with several individual forecasting models, including the Double Moving Average (DMA), Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), and Holt–Winters methods (both additive and multiplicative trends), as well as long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. Our proposed hybrid model builds upon previous work with improvements in hyperparameter tuning using the GRG nonlinear optimization method. The results demonstrate that the hybrid LSTM-DES models outperformed all individual models in terms of both accuracy and demand variation. The reason behind the success of the hybrid model is that it works well with both linear and nonlinear trends, as well as the seasonality of certain periods. Furthermore, the forecast results for train passengers will serve as input variables to estimate the future revenue of train travel programs in various regions, including rail tourism. This information will help identify which regions should receive increased focus and investment by the train tourism program. For example, if the forecasted number of passengers in the northern region is high, the State Railway of Thailand will promote and improve infrastructure at the train station and nearby tourist attractions.