An explanation of persistence in monthly mean temperatures in the Netherlands.

Abstract

Persistence of the anomalies in the monthly mean air temperature has been investigated thoroughly for 15 stations in the Netherlands. All stations used have records of a least 50 years. The persistence is expressed in the correlation coefficient of the air temperature of adjacent months. At all stations the correlation coefficient is high at the end of summer and winter and smaller in the other months. In general, persistence is large close to and over the sea and decreases over land with increasing distance from the coast. Finally, we discuss the skill of forecasting schemes based on simple persistence. -from Authors