Deterministic full-scenario analysis for maximum credible earthquake hazards

Abstract

Great earthquakes are one of the major threats to modern society due to their great destructive power and unpredictability. The maximum credible earthquake (MCE) for a specific fault, i.e., the largest magnitude earthquake that may occur there, has numerous potential scenarios with different source processes, making the future seismic hazard highly uncertain. We propose a full-scenario analysis method to evaluate the MCE hazards with deterministic broadband simulations of numerous scenarios. The full-scenario analysis is achieved by considering all uncertainties of potential future earthquakes with sufficient scenarios. Here we show an application of this method in the seismic hazard analysis for the Xiluodu dam in China by simulating 22,000,000 MCE scenarios in 0–10 Hz. The proposed method can provide arbitrary intensity measures, ground-motion time series, and spatial ground-motion fields for all hazard levels, which enables more realistic and accurate MCE hazard evaluations, and thus has great application potential in earthquake engineering.