Precipitation Conditions Constrain the Sensitivity of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in Tibetan Plateau Grasslands to Climate Change

Abstract

Continued climate warming and precipitation fluctuations are expected to further affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) across alpine grasslands, with associated implications for ecosystem functions. The spatial and temporal variability of ANPP in Tibetan Plateau (TP) grasslands and its response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in this study, based on the ANPP estimated by means of ensemble analysis of multiple machine learning models. First, the response of the spatial distribution of ANPP to variations in the precipitation gradient was nonlinear and showed an S-shaped growth pattern, which could be divided into four stages (stationary, rapid growth, slower growth, and saturation) corresponding to arid (mean annual precipitation (MAP) < 250 mm), semiarid (250 mm < MAP < 450 mm), semihumid (450 mm < MAP < 650 mm) and humid (MAP > 650 mm) precipitation regimes, respectively. Second, regional precipitation regimes affected the sensitivity of ANPP’s interannual variability to temperature and precipitation; ANPP is more sensitive to temperature in wetter areas than in dryer areas of the TP region. The results of our study suggest that in the region of Tibetan Plateau, the response of grassland ANPP variation to climate was constrained by the background precipitation regimes.