Exploring Thematic Evolution in Interdisciplinary Forest Fire Prediction Research: A Latent Dirichlet Allocation–Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers Model Analysis

Abstract

Facing the severe global wildfire challenge and the need for advanced prediction, this study analysed the evolving research in forest fire prediction using an LDA-BERT similarity model. Due to climate change, human activities, and natural factors, forest fires threaten ecosystems, society, and the climate system. The vast existing literature on forest fire prediction makes it challenging to identify research themes manually. The proposed LDA-BERT model combines LDA and BERT. LDA was used for topic mining, determining the optimal number of topics by calculating the semantic consistency. BERT was employed in word vector training, using topic word probabilities as weights. The cosine similarity algorithm and normalisation were used to measure the topic similarity. Through empirical research on 13,552 publications from 1980–2023 retrieved from the Web of Science database, several key themes were identified, such as “wildfire risk management”, “vegetation and habitat changes”, and “climate change and forests”. Research trends show a shift from macro-level to micro-level studies, with modern technologies becoming a focus. Multidimensional scaling revealed a hierarchical theme distribution, with themes closely related to forest fires being dominant. This research offers valuable insights for the scientific community and policymakers, facilitating understanding these changes and contributing to wildfire mitigation. However, it has limitations like subjectivity in theme-representative word selection and needs further improvement in threshold setting and model performance evaluation. Future research can optimise these aspects and integrate emerging technologies to enhance forest fire prediction research.