Systematic Review of Variable Selection Bias in Species Distribution Models for Aedes vexans (Diptera: Culicidae)

Abstract

We conducted a systematic literature review, following PRISMA guidelines, to assess whether existing species distribution models for Aedes vexans reflect its known ecological requirements. This mosquito is closely associated with temporary floodwaters, making hydrological dynamics a critical factor for accurate modelling. From 28 peer-reviewed studies, we extracted 477 environmental and ecological variables and organized them into a hierarchical classification scheme with four main categories: weather, land characteristics, water characteristics, and population. We analysed patterns in variable usage and the reported importance of each variable. Our results show that flood-related variables were largely absent, despite the species’ reliance on ephemeral water bodies for reproduction. This may possibly reduce the predictive utility of existing Aedes vexans species distribution models. In contrast, urban-landscape variables were frequently used and often ranked as highly predictive, but such results were primarily found in studies that did not account for sampling bias.