Spatio-temporal analysis of the process of forest loss in the municipalities of Charo, Hidalgo, Indaparapeo, Queréndaro and Zinapécuaro. Michoacan, Mexico

Abstract

In the state of Michoacan, Mexico, the forest loss has increased due to the change in land use caused by the expansion of permanent crops, particularly avocado cultivation. The spatio-temporal models allow us to know what are the interactions influencing the occurrence of this phenomenon of land use change and help to visualize the resulting spatial patterns. In this research, changes in land use were identified from 1994 to 2015 in the municipalities of Charo, Hidalgo, Indaparapeo, Queréndaro and Zinapécuaro in the state of Michoacán. Within the above context, a DEFORELATIONS model was built, where the spatial relationships present in the study area were analyzed, and those factors that have influenced the loss of forest and open forest were identified. Finally, a prediction was done of the areas susceptible to forest loss and their degree of probability of forest loss. From the application of the model, from the 10 spatial relationships analyzed, only proximity of forest cover to human settlements, proximity to roads, and proximity to permanent and annual crops, were relevant to forest loss. In the case of the loss of open forest, the same relationships were relevant, with exception of proximity of forest to roads.