A conceptual meta-level digital twin architecture for energy communities in Romania and other ex-communist countries

Abstract

In contrast to the prevalent ecological motivations seen in European Energy Communities (ECs), in Romania, the driving forces behind EC initiatives are somewhat different. Approximately 60% of these initiatives are primarily focused on addressing energy poverty. The remaining 40% are primarily driven by a desire for energy autonomy. This article explores the intricate landscape of EC projects, focusing on their role in aligning with climate change necessities. We delve into the current state of the energy industry, identifying critical needs, gaps, and challenges that hinder their full potential. Furthermore, we propose potential research directions to bridge these gaps, emphasizing the development of a Meta-level digital twin (DT) architecture. It aims to enhance decision-making processes by simulating energy systems and their real-time responses to various scenarios and regulatory changes. Then, we focus on cost-effectiveness of installing PV systems in Romania and estimate the current technical potential for households (12.9 GW) and prosumers' PV installations in 2030 and 2050. To forecast the adoption of PV from 2025 to 2030 and 2050, the proposed model relies on several assumptions, such as annual decreases in CAPEX by 1%, in OPEX by 0.15%, increment in electricity prices by 0.1% per year, degradation rate of 0.1% per year for PV systems. The following projections are obtained for 2030 (3948 MW) and for 2050 (5265 MW), estimating that the growth rate from 2030 to 2050 will be 33%.