The Delphi Method for Future Scenarios Construction

Abstract

The Delphi method, originated on the 1960́s, is a technique used to help construct present and future scenarios focused on specific issues with the help of experts on the focused subject. The method helps reach a consensus among the participants based on all posted opinions from different experiences and points of view in order to build a common scenario. This paper presents the phases of the method, from the initial preparations of inviting and filtering experts to the final phase of constructing the future scenario. The paper exemplifies de procedures of the method based on the collected data from a research with the objective of creating possible scenarios of technology and innovation advances and interaction expectations in the next 5 to 10 years.