The Impact of Suicide Attacks on Voting Behavior: The Case of November 2015 Early Elections

Abstract

What explains the 2015 defeat of Nigeria's ruling party by a new party less than two years old? Despite a spike in terrorism and widespread public complaints about government waste, the authors find that neither violence nor patronage systematically explains voting patterns. Instead, statistical evidence points to state-level economic performance and perceptions of national economy. Using surveys, original variables measuring economic performance and–for the first time–presidential election results at the local government level, the authors demonstrate that ‘economic voting’ helped the opposition. They attribute opposition success to a ‘talakawa effect’ rooted in a class-based coalition.