Testing the total consumption model of alcohol

Abstract

Supply-side interventions to reduce alcohol consumption are often justified by reference to the total consumption model. According to this theory, which is dominant in public health academia, reducing per capita alcohol consumption across society is a sufficient and necessary condition to reduce alcohol-related mortality. This article presents new evidence showing that there is no single distribution of alcohol consumption and that trends in per capita consumption and alcohol-related mortality often move in opposite directions. Economic interventions designed to reduce the prevalence of heavy drinking by reducing per capita alcohol consumption cannot therefore be assumed to be effective.