Quantitative analysis of climate change impacts on the productivity of rainfed winter wheat: a case study of Kurdistan province, Iran

Abstract

Ensuring food security for the growing global population is a critical challenge, exacerbated by climate change. Rainfed wheat, a key staple crop, is highly vulnerable due to its dependence on rainfall variability. This study examines the effects of climate change on rainfed wheat yield and rainwater productivity in Kurdistan province, Iran utilizing AquaCrop-GIS. The results indicate that daily temperatures in the study area rise by 02–58 °C under three scenarios (SSP1-24, 2-45, and 5-85) across three time frames: near future (2021–2040), mid-future (2041–2060), and far future (2061–2100), respectively. Rainfall changes are expected to range from +220 to −70 mm. High-temperature stress is prevalent in most of the province. Temperature and CO2 levels increase in combination with an adequate amount of rainfall causing crop yield with an average of 115 ton/ha increase in long term under SSP5-85 up to 200%. Furthermore, yield improvements are anticipated to boost rainwater productivity with an average of 025 kg/m3 by more than 150% across most locations. Ultimately, this study suggests that rising temperatures may enhance rainfed crop yields in the region, and adapting planting dates and selecting appropriate crop varieties can be effective strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change.