Ground-motion simulation for the eastern province of Saudi Arabia using a stochastic model

Abstract

The eastern Arabian Peninsula lies close to Zagros fold-thrust fault belt that has been considered as one of the most active seismotectonic regions in the Middle East, where the occurrences of large earthquakes (M w≥ 5.0) are in abundance. The southern Kuwait seismic zone is the nearest source to the study area. Hence, a wide spread damage can be expected in this region due to the presence of thick section of soft sediments. Here earthquake catalogue is compiled, reviewed precisely and compared with the international seismological data. The affected seismotectonic zones are modeled and their seismicity parameters and maximum moment magnitude are estimated. Peak Ground Acceleration values for earthquakes with magnitudes 4.0 ≤ M w≤ 7.5 have been simulated at distances up to 300 km from the source using a stochastic model. The predicted attenuation for Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at bedrock is estimated as: log (PGA) = -0.94 + 0.249 M w - log r - 0.00233r + 0.19 P. With the help of this equation, the potential seismic hazard for the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula can be assessed. © 2011 WIT Press.