How to use the impossible map – Considerations for a rigorous exploration of Digital Twins of the Earth

Abstract

The term “Digital Twins of the Earth” has rocketed into scientific use and policymaker discourse by promising a virtual replica of our planet. While the potential of a digital representation of reality is captivating for environmental monitoring, decision-making, and scientific inquiry, the term lacks a clear and shared definition and may be misleading. It conceals that all digital representations are models and, as such, will always be detached from reality. Detailed simulation models are excellent digital laboratories that allow us to interrogate our theories about the world in ways otherwise not possible, given the limited scales at which we can run real-world experiments, yet a perfect representation of reality is impossible as it would be exactly as complex. As we embark on the journey of building such detailed models, one question we must ask is, "How can we ensure that they can be explored with scientific rigor?" Here, we discuss possible ways to utilize a model's internal variability to understand its dominant controls to increase our understanding of both the models we build and the world that they represent.