Bias adjustment for threshold-based climate indicators

Abstract

Abstract. A method is presented which applies bias adjustments to climate indicators that are based on fixed thresholds, e.g., the number of hot days with the maximum temperature exceeding 30 ∘C or the number of days with heavy precipitation in exceedance of 20 mm rainfall. The bias adjustment first identifies the percentile of the required threshold value in reference climate data. Then it computes the value of this percentile for the individual historical climate model simulations – here an ensembles of EURO-CORDEX model runs, including dynamical and statistical models. Finally, the climate indicator is re-calculated for each model. The method is applied to climate projections as well, giving further insight into the projected development of the ensemble for extreme conditions. It is assessed that communication to the public and decision makers is improved by expressing these changes in extremes based on absolute values.