Stratification of patients admitted for SARS-CoV2 infection: prognostic scores in the first and second wave of the pandemic

Abstract

To test the prognostic performance of different scores, both specifically designed for patients with COVID-19 and generic, in predicting in-hospital mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation (MV). We retrospectively collected clinical data of patients admitted to the Emergency Department of the University Hospital AOU Careggi, Florence, Italy, between February 2020 and January 2021, with a confirmed infection by SARS-CoV2. We calculated the following scores: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, CALL score, 4C Mortality score, QUICK score, CURB-65 and MuLBSTA score. The end-points were in-hospital mortality and the need for MV. We included 1208 patients, mean age 60 ± 17 years, 57% male sex. Compared to survivors, non-survivors showed significantly higher values of all the prognostic scores (4C: 13 [10–15] vs 8 [4–10]; CALL: 11 [10–12] vs 9 [7–11]; QUICK: 4 [1–6] vs 0 [0–3]; SOFA: 5 [4–6] vs 4 [4–5]; CURB: 2 [1–3] vs 1 [0–1]; MuLBSTA: 11 [9–13] vs 9 [7–11], all p < 0.001). Discriminative ability evaluated by the Receiver Operating Curve analysis showed the following values of the Area under the Curve: 0.83 for 4C, 0.74 for CALL, 0.70 for QUICK, 0.68 for SOFA, 0.76 for CURB and 0.64 for MuLBSTA. The mortality rate significantly increased in increasing quartiles of 4C and CALL score (respectively, 2, 8, 24 and 54% for the 4C score and 1, 17, 33 and 68% for the CALL score, both p < 0.001). 4C and CALL score allowed an early and good prognostic stratification of patients admitted for pneumonia induced by SARS-CoV2.