Generation expansion models including technical constraints and demand uncertainty

Abstract

This article presents a Generation Expansion Model of the power system taking into account the operational constraints and the uncertainty of long-term electricity demand projections. The model is based on a discretization of the load duration curve and explicitly considers that power plant ramping capabilities must meet demand variations. A model predictive control method is used to improve the long-term planning decisions while considering the uncertainty of demand projections. The model presented in this paper allows integrating technical constraints and uncertainty in the simulations, improving the accuracy of the results, while maintaining feasible computational time. Results are tested over three scenarios based on load data of an energy retailer in Colombia.