A Hybrid Fault Tree–Fuzzy Logic Model for Risk Analysis in Multimodal Freight Transport

Abstract

Multimodal freight transport systems, integrating maritime, rail, and road modes, play a vital role in modern logistics but face elevated operational, human, and environmental risks due to their complexity and interdependencies. To address the limitations of conventional risk assessment methods, this study proposes a hybrid risk modeling framework that integrates fault tree analysis (FTA), dynamic fault trees (DFTs), and fuzzy logic reasoning. This approach supports the modeling of sequential failures and captures qualitative uncertainties such as human fatigue and inadequate training. The framework incorporates reliability metrics, including Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF), enabling the quantification of system resilience and identification of critical failure pathways. Application of the model revealed human error, particularly procedural violations, insufficient training, and fatigue, as the dominant risk factor across transport modes. Road transport exhibited the highest probability of risk occurrence (p = 0.9960), followed by rail (p = 0.9937) and maritime (p = 0.9900). By integrating probabilistic reasoning with qualitative insights, the proposed model offers a flexible decision support tool for logistics operators and policymakers, enabling scenario-based risk planning and enhancing system robustness under uncertainty.