Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024

Abstract

Purpose This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2024 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2021 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2022 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2024. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend for prediction. Results In total, 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2024. The most common cancer site is expected to be the thyroid, followed by the colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent 55.7% of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers. Conclusion The age-standardized incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers are estimated to continue to increase. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.